Customs data show China import and export value in August to $ 328.87 billion, an increase of 27.1%, of which 24.5% growth in exports and imports by 30.2% month surplus of $ 17.8 billion. Experts said that despite the import and export in August up by speed optimistic, but contains significant price growth factors, and there has been a decline of exports coupled with the current complicated international situation of economic recovery, increased risk of external uncertainty, which will result in the future.
External risk increase, China has focused on the rising costs, the dual pressures of foreign trade to adjust or to promote the acceleration of the turning point coming.
Import surge caused by narrowing of the surplus "price rise minus" trend continues
August led to soaring imports of China's trade surplus narrowed significantly to $ 17.8 billion.
"Significant trade surplus in August dropped to a record high mainly due to the scale of imports, while export volumes have decreased." Bank Financial Research Center Simon Luk pointed out that from July 2011 to August 2011, imports increased by 119 scale .2 billion, while export volumes decreased by 18.2 billion U.S. dollars, so a substantial trade surplus in July dropped more than $ 13,740,000,000.
It is worth noting that this year's imports and exports showed a "price rise minus" trend still continues in August, indicating growth in the import and export contains considerable price rises, as the data did not reflect the actual growth of less robust.
School of Economics, Renmin University of China Professor Wang Jinbin is on the "Economic Information Daily" correspondent that "price rise minus" may not be a good signal, because China mainly relies on product cost advantage, if costs continue to rise, then Chinese products in international market on the share will drop.
Downside risks remain future export
Experts said thatDespite the optimistic growth rate of imports and exports up in August, but contains significant price growth factors, and there has been a decline of exports coupled with the current complicated international situation of economic recovery, increased risk of external uncertainty, which can lead to downside risks to the future of China's exports increased.
The global economic slump will affect the future demand for Chinese exports overseas.
Simon Luk said that China's future external economic environment is still facing more uncertainty, China's foreign trade may have some adverse effects on the one hand, the developed countries during the economic slowdown in Europe and America almost a foregone conclusion. India, Brazil and other emerging market economy began to show more signs of a slowdown, while inflation has not significantly reduced on the other hand, the leading indicators from the international point of view, but also began to come down significantly. recently published O EC D countries, business confidence index in July (BC I) and the consumer confidence index (CCI) a continuous decline.
In addition, the risk of trade protection may increase in the future. Brazil and other countries began to impose more stringent trade protection measures, while Europe and other countries, traditional trade increased in the context of the Chinese economy under stress may exacerbate trade protection, which is China's external trade environment will have a negative impact.
Wang Jinbin on the "Economic Information Daily" correspondent said that now most concerns the United States and the European economy may slow to enter a relatively long-term recovery of the state, in the absence of major technological innovation to stimulate investment and income redistribution measures to stimulate consumption in the context of The situation is possible. then the current situation is not ideal external demand will continue for a long time.
Increase in the export sector to adjust the cost of concentrate near the inflection point
"Economic Information Daily" correspondent research found that the current export price increase,Mainly cost-push price adjustment resulting from a passive, rather than quality improvement brought about because of increased bargaining power, and even many companies can not be passive under the price adjustment to make up for losses caused by rising costs.
Experts say high costs and export profit margins under pressure will allow this is because China's export prices determined by international market, the manufacturer is difficult to pass on increased costs. With China's economic development, labor, land and other factor costs is bound to rise, it is difficult to continue business strategy over the last era of cheap labor.
Chinese goods are more expensive, which makes the recent discussion on China's manufacturing advantage once again become a hot spot. Not long ago, UBS economist Jonathan Anderson, analysis and calculation of the first half of 2011 the United States and the EU import data, the released a report that he found China's share began to decline in light manufacturing, from the former 50 percent to 48 percent, while the beneficiaries, including Bangladesh (exports to the U.S. increased by 19%) and Vietnam (to increase exports to the U.S. 16%), Anderson talked about the transfer of labor-intensive manufacturing to Southeast Asia, said first half of 2011 "seems to be a very convincing turning point."
Zhang Yansheng, the NDRC had macroeconomic researcher on the "Economic Information Daily," told reporters that Chinese goods become more expensive, may be a danger signal, because the current speed of the formation of new competitive advantages than the traditional competitive advantage disappears speed should be good grasp of the current policy adjustment efforts, accelerate the formation of a new competitive advantage.
Wang Jinbin also said that the adjustment should be a gradual process. The current focus on rising costs, upgrade the structure of China's foreign trade is an opportunity, but the trigger factor is passive, adjusting to change from passive to active adjustment,Requirements "to low-cost" of not to be too fierce, or policies will have a large impact: either can not afford the cost of the policy, or on employment have a significant negative impact.
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