Rapid appreciation, the first negative impact is the impact of foreign trade enterprises.

"I estimate that one-third of China's foreign trade of small and medium enterprises operating in the RMB exchange rate will be significantly higher in the case does not fall into the normal state." Silk Road Group chairman and senior economist Linglan Fang said, "companies have to meet the challenge, or to upgrade to higher value added products, or the flexibility to shift from foreign markets to develop the Chinese market. "

Second half of the impact of gradually

Reporters found that many foreign companies have adopted other methods to avoid the risk of early settlement, but the pace of yuan appreciation these technical means to think beyond the market in rising above 6.42 the day before yesterday, yesterday, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar exchange rate has exceeded 6.40, to 6.3991 yuan , then a new high since the foreign exchange reform since so far this year, the RMB against the U.S. dollar has appreciated about 3.5%, analysts pointed out that the impact of RMB appreciation, particularly the impact on exports, will gradually appear in the second half.

Appreciation during the year reached 3.5%

On 29 April this year exceeded 6.50 yuan mark since the trend of the RMB against the U.S. dollar almost straight line, especially the four trading days this week, August 10, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar rose above 6.42 to 6.4167 and then a new high since the foreign exchange reform, a four-day appreciation of about 0.7% since year to date, the RMB against the U.S. dollar has appreciated about 3.5% higher on weak dollar, while the yuan against the euro, the pound has been in the trading range, a slight appreciation of the but has continued to depreciate against the yen.

Pace of yuan appreciation than the market thought, mainly due to the superposition of internal and external factors from the external environment, the recent downgrade of U.S. debt by the impact of turbulence in international financial markets, investors worried about the global economy into recession again.The QE3 (the third round of the quantitative easing Federal Reserve monetary policy) is also regarded as a booster for RMB appreciation.

From internal factors, China's trade surplus continued to expand in July, another for the support provided to accelerate the appreciation of RMB, while the market in the United States and Europe are expected to resolve the debt crisis is not the case, decision-making will not use interest rates and temporarily reserve these two tools, but by means of appreciation of the RMB exchange rate to maintain a certain degree of tightening efforts to curb inflation, although most of the market who question the attitude of this view, but at this sensitive time of the node, experts have said the central bank may choose to do so.

There is much appreciation of the yuan next room? This is not a clear answer. The majority of market institutions during the year remained RMB appreciation of 5% to 6% of the forecast, the first seven months of 3.5% against the backdrop of a breakthrough, but also means that the yuan to accelerate the pace of appreciation is not sustainable.

Foreign trade enterprises face a double challenge

RMB appreciation has been a double-edged sword, bear the brunt of the negative impact is the impact of foreign trade enterprises. "Many foreign trade enterprises in Guangdong, the

In foreign enterprises, the RMB appreciation, depreciation of the dollar is the operating pressure. "Guangzhou Academy of Social Sciences Senior Fellow Peng Peng had this in an interview with reporters, said.

Reporters learned that, although many foreign companies already have some appreciation of the yuan to the psychological preparation, and other methods have to be taken in advance to avoid foreign exchange risks, but these technical means are of very little, "long not received a single, short enough to eat alone." The situation is still more common due to company received large orders, orders increased risk of long-term, will fall, most of the orders, "dapper". "eye has not had a few nights together,This raw material prices, labor costs and capital costs, the business already difficult, partly because of orders and the dollar's repeated 'shrink' profit margin. "Guangdong owner of a small foreign company Jiang said that if the yuan continue to rise, his business will lose money.

The boss of Foshan, a Japanese chemical Kao, also felt the pressure, "the U.S. dollar exchange rate has been reduced, the company reduced the number of customers. Coupled with inflation in the U.S. China will now also consider the switch to the euro to trade."

However, some analysts believe the yuan appreciation on the impact of foreign trade enterprises may not be significant. Guangzhou Securities analyst ZHANG Guang-wen told reporters, on the export side, China's exports in July increased 20 percent, the figure is higher than market expectations , the current slowdown in exports did not see signs of growth. In addition, the dollar is concerned, the current downward pressure is relatively large, a passive appreciation of the renminbi appreciation. This is a short-term appreciation of the magnitude of the impact of exports is not obvious.

But should not be overlooked is that foreign companies face pressure on RMB appreciation not only in the U.S. data showed U.S. consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level in two years, first to be affected is the U.S. retailer, and retailers pressure will be sent directly into the Chinese export enterprises, market analysts believe that the current uncertainties facing foreign trade has increased, the current weakness in external demand, raw materials, labor and electricity costs, the overlay of both factors, the export situation remains complicated, especially processing trade, faced with market fluctuations, trade protectionism, strengthen the regional competition and other challenges. Ampang consulting researcher expects faster RMB appreciation impact on exports,In the second half gradually.

Property hot money rolling in

China's real estate market is suffering from the most stringent control policies ever baked, but some American investors see this as a business opportunity in their view, is expected to remain unchanged as long as the RMB appreciation, China's real estate market has a very broad investment prospects. "many companies now have branches in Hong Kong, we will exchange U.S. dollars into the company bank account in Hong Kong, and China can from the enterprise according to withdraw the appropriate premium was RMB exchange costs than banks also sometimes low. "An American buyers for his trip to China talking about the purchase, in addition to this" formal "way, through underground banks can convert U.S. dollars to China.

It is understood that although the government resorted to the most stringent market regulation, after some overseas buyers began to withdraw from the real estate industry, but the GDP data released in China remains high growth, showing a straight line of RMB appreciation, many foreign investors quickly to kill a Parthian shot.

Changes in currency markets that China and other emerging market countries face the risk of hot money arrives the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Zhang Ming, deputy director of the International Financial Research, said that compared to Europe and other countries, because China and other emerging market countries sustained high growth, high interest rates, exchange rate appreciation of space, so the Chinese market could become part of international hot money coveted land.

Meanwhile, the U.S. downgrade, the spread of the debt crisis will lead to a series of time, or set off a global financial markets, "Sasser", when developed countries are no longer assets of the trust, the impact of international hot money will speed up the pace of emerging markets Foreign Exchange Bureau released the preliminary balance of payments data show that China's capital and financial account surplus is still high,Shows a net inflow of international capital, the pressure enormous, hidden during the "hot money" is worrying.

According to a long-term expatriates working in China, introduction, these foreign investors will not put money remitted out of China, after all, no one region has the world the Chinese economy so strong, so more of some structural or region of adjustment, "Maybe some people will opt out after the Expo Shanghai property, Beijing restriction that is introduced to give up lots holding some non-core property assets." According to media reports, the eyes of foreign investors have begun to shift some of the second and third tier cities in the real estate market is booming.

This articlereleased:China Trade Information (http://en.zgxu.com),Reprinted Please note Ming.