In July, China's trade surplus highest since February 2009, a new high since, but analysts point out that this change with changes in commodity prices, higher short-term orders for Christmas related. With the U.S. debt, debt crisis continues to spread in Europe and China constantly adjust macroeconomic policy, "uncertainty" will become the main trend of China's foreign trade in the second half tone, the general trend I have been narrowing the trade surplus will not change.
Experienced more than six months of raw materials, labor and other costs upward pressure, the external economic situation of uncertainty once again make people ill at ease trade in Europe and America can survive the debt crisis of the storm, emerging markets will slow the pace of inflation, the world economy will double dip? analysts pointed out that after an upward pressure on cost of China's foreign trade after the baptism of the world will face the challenges of economic uncertainty.
Surplus narrowed a foregone conclusion
The first five months of this year, China's trade surplus continued to decline, the country from January to May cumulative trade surplus of 22.97 billion U.S. dollars, decreased by 35.1%, but did not maintain the surplus in June to reduce the trend, the trade surplus in June reached $ 22.273 billion, hit seven-month high of .7 months since June continued the trend, recently released the July foreign trade data show that China's trade surplus in July reached $ 31.48 billion, compared with $ 9.207 billion increase in June, the highest since February, 2009 a new high this year since the market expected a higher trade surplus narrowed Is a screeching halt?
Analysts generally believe that the trade surplus widened 6,7 months more to seasonal factors. Wang Jianhui, director of Southwest Securities Research Institute, told reporters this month's trade surplus widened and international commodity prices decline in the import prices of raw materials resulting in an increase in the amount of imports on the decline. In addition, factors that influence by the Western Christmas, Christmas order effects begin to be felt,Resulting in rapid rise in exports. Wang Jianhui that the current Chinese Chinese purchasing power is still good in foreign markets, the central framework of structural adjustment, boost consumption in China has been a top priority, so the internal consumption of power is strong. In addition, the devaluation of the yuan in the period rise outside the state will cause the steady growth of imports, and this factor is not favorable for export, therefore, in his view, narrowing the trade surplus this year will become a foregone conclusion, but the rate will not be too much.
Investment Advisor in the macroeconomic researcher Peng Ming White also hold the same view. White Peng Ming interview with this reporter, said that China's trade surplus narrowed the international economic environment, economic environment and result of the role, but also the future development trend of China's foreign trade. On the one hand, imports from China-oriented policies and industrial restructuring trends, due to the coastal export-oriented enterprise development difficulties, the export volume will likely be long-term suppression, coupled with government-oriented policies to expand imports, the trade surplus is bound showed a diminishing trend in the other hand, the U.S. debt crisis is likely to lead to the development of the entire world economy into a brief period of weakness, which will also be an objective to reduce China's total exports.
Nomura Securities is expected this year, China's trade surplus will be higher than last year's $ 183 billion has been narrowed, and the current account surplus in China's share of GDP will be further narrowed to 2.9% next year will be 1.4 %.
Foreign trade growth rate is difficult to determine
Earlier, media reports said the Ministry of Commerce's annual meeting in the Ministry of Commerce for the annual trend of foreign trade forecast is 20%.
In the first half of the 25.8% growth in foreign trade has been completed, based on the annual growth rate of 20% seems reasonable, but the Ministry of Commerce, Director of Research Institute of Foreign Trade Li Jian, told reporters that the 20% growth looks optimistic.In his view, the annual foreign trade growth rate of 15% to 20% more likely. Li Jian said that the current global financial markets in turmoil, there are downside risks to markets of developed countries, while emerging market is in inflation in the mire, which are to promote the possibility of weakening external demand. "depend on the future of Europe and the United States to address the debt crisis of the measures can play a role, who is also difficult to make clear judgments." Jian said.
Research Fellow at the Center Bank Simon Luk Kim believes that foreign trade to achieve 20 percent annual growth rate is not difficult, he judged that the external environment, the global economy is unlikely to be a second round of financial crisis, an event China's S & P rating long-term economic impact is limited, but he also pointed out that the debt crisis has a long-term trend, the U.S. pressure jobs and economic recovery, emerging markets, high inflation pressures in the economy tends to slow down, the external trade environment, there are still more uncertainty. "overall growth of foreign trade with countries, the global economic environment has a direct link from the current global economic growth, China's foreign trade environment is not clear if the global economic fluctuations, the growth rate of China's foreign trade will continue to decline. In addition, China's GDP growth rate is gradually cooling, which will also limit the objective of high growth rate of China's foreign trade. "Simon Luk said.
This chapterfrom the:China Trade Information (http://en.zgxu.com),please visit the above web site source for more similar articles.