In this regard, many academics believe that Hong Kong and the Mainland, the Ministry of Commerce of the forecast is not without cause, analysts said, although the import and export is facing multiple pressures, but China as a global manufacturing base for the basic pattern remains unchanged, China's foreign direct investment has not reduction in the growth rate of more than 26% of the first half of foreign trade on the basis of the second half of the global economic situation even worse, China's foreign trade can still maintain 20% growth rate.
Department of Commerce: annual foreign trade is still optimistic
Customs Department has released data show that in the first half China's foreign trade export value reached 1.70367 trillion U.S. dollars, up 25.8% showing down trend growth rate of foreign trade data show that from January to June, monthly export growth rate of China 44.0%, 10.7%, 31.4%, 25.9%, 23.5% and 18.5% In addition, export growth has declined for four straight months, March, April, May and June were 35.8%, 29.9%, 19.4 % and 17.9% In addition, in the first half China's total trade surplus of 44.93 billion U.S. dollars, up 18.2% narrowing of the year is expected the trade surplus remained at 120 billion to 150 billion U.S. dollars in size.
However, in the first half showed a decline trend of foreign trade growth rate but did not let the Chinese scholars and officials disappointed macroeconomic National Development and Reform Commission Zhang Yansheng, director of the Institute of Foreign Economic Research made it clear that China's imports and exports about 20% The growth rate is not low, we value the export quality and efficiency of the economy's contribution, rather than speed and scale.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Commerce officials said that although the global economy seems to have plunged into a new round of crisis, but everyone in the second half of the foreign trade situation is still relatively optimistic about the first half of the 1.7 trillion,In the second half will probably reach about 1.9 trillion, the annual growth rate which can be maintained above 20%.
This optimism is also expected to come from the real effective exchange rate of RMB's latest analysis of the industry have pointed out that the yuan this year, even in the real effective exchange rate depreciation trend, export the environment may not have imagined that bad.
Changed the pattern of foreign investment continued manufacturing growth in China
Chinese University of Hong Kong International Development Research Centre Zhao Xiaobin analysis pointed out that Western economies after the 2008 financial crisis, despite the recession has not been out of the shadows, but did not produce the global pattern of fundamental change in the manufacturing sector. In contrast, the more Western economic depression, the China-made low-end products the greater the demand, the sale of Chinese low-end products to Wal-Mart during the economic downturn contrarian development is an obvious example.
In China China, although there are many SMEs have closed down for various reasons, but also an endless stream of new businesses open, far more than the number of business failures. SME Bureau of Guangdong Province, the disclosure of data, as of the end of June 2011, Guangdong Province of SMEs as the main private households up to 1,009,200, an increase of 6.44% over the end of 2010; individual businesses 3.3887 million, up 1.27% over the previous year in the gathering of foreign small and medium enterprises in Dongguan, Dongguan Bureau of Foreign Trade under the data, the first half of the city's total shut down, relocation of 266 foreign-funded enterprises, and additional 800 enterprises, real growth of 7.52% foreign investment, export and import growth of 14.1%.
On the other hand, China's FDI (foreign direct investment) has not been reduced, but also the growing trend, showing the growing foreign investment is still optimistic about the mainland market. Moreover, many foreign investors into China's high-end manufacturing of its products are not all exports, a large part of domestic sales, in this case, China's foreign trade continued to maintain a high growth rate is normal.
International Trade and Economic Cooperation Ministry of Commerce research fellow Wang also said China's first seven months of foreign direct investment increase of over 10%, reaches the level of last year, so from that point of view, China's economy has not been the international economic downturn He believes that China's economic structure and economic structure of Western countries are essentially different, the situation now facing the Chinese economy is not as bad as many people imagine, many worry not unrelated to the media hype.
Wang suggested that the Chinese government in 2008, the global financial crisis, issuing a large number of financial loans to stimulate economic development, leading to serious complications such as high inflation, the Chinese government should learn from this lesson to further reduce the economic level of administrative intervention efforts and continue to to maintain sound economic policies.
China orders world with no fear of the slow recovery
European sovereign debt crisis cast a shadow of the global economy, all parties are worried about the global economy may fall into the second round of the crisis, but whether the Chinese government or the private think tanks believe that, even if the global economy into a downturn once again, the world of Chinese products The demand is still not significantly reduced, however, the resulting adverse effects can not be ignored.
Customs General Statistics Division Zheng Yue sound analysis, the global economic recovery is slow and full of variables, sovereign debt crisis is not yet over in Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, political instability have exacerbated China's foreign trade export and import growth uncertainty. By the labor rising costs and exchange rate factors, China's labor-intensive products of export price competitiveness is weakening. In addition, short-term earthquake in Japan caused some of the product supply chain broke, China's foreign trade has caused some impact.
Zhang Yansheng said, according to a recent province on China's foreign trade of Guangdong Province and Zhejiang Province, research had shown thatVarious costs have risen sharply in the case, 20 percent of small businesses struggling foreign trade; 50% to 60% of SMEs in the middle position; However, leading companies in various industries, due to its strong self-design, development, production capacity still can improve efficiency, reduce costs, structural adjustment, promote innovation, improve the management to ease the upward pressure on costs. "these companies" full orders ", and have strong bargaining power to the 40% of the cost upward pressure on the transfer to foreign users the world demand for Chinese goods remains strong, companies are not lack of orders, not just low-price orders to do. "said Zhang Yansheng.
Shenzhen's foreign trade led private enterprises play a leading role
Even more surprising is the sound of panic in the global economy, Shenzhen is thriving, its foreign trade growth rate far exceeds the national average, according to Shenzhen Customs statistics show that the first four months of this year, Shenzhen's foreign trade import and export value 129 070 000 000 U.S. dollars, up 44.6%, respectively, higher than the national and Guangdong import and export growth 16.1 percent and 14.9 percent of which, export value of $ 75.09 billion, an increase of 46.7%.
And growth in foreign trade, foreign-funded enterprises in Shenzhen, though still a dominant position, but the private enterprises in Shenzhen was a great come from behind faster growth trend, according to statistics, the first four months, import and export of foreign-invested enterprises in Shenzhen $ 74.54 billion, an increase of 41.7%, accounting for 57.8% of the city's total foreign trade, continued to maintain the dominant position of the city's biggest trade, but the import and export of private enterprises in Shenzhen, $ 40.57 billion, a substantial increase of 63.6%, faster than the city's export growth rate 19 percentage points, the proportion of the last year 27.8% to 31.4% and exports of products in Shenzhen is still the main export of electromechanical products, especially mobile phones, portable computers, game consoles and other consumer electronic products export growth amazing. the first four months, exports were $ 9.03 billion , $ 2.41 billion, 5.7 billion, up 1.3 times, 78.9%, 5.6 times.
In addition, exporting and importing countries and regions from the point of view, substantial growth in exports to Hong Kong in Shenzhen, the first four months, Shenzhen and Hong Kong's largest trading partner, bilateral trade value of $ 34.36 billion, an increase of 76.7%, of which a substantial growth in exports to Hong Kong 79.7%, reaching $ 34.04 billion, accounting for 45.3% of total exports. In addition, the Shenzhen-ASEAN bilateral trade value of $ 14.35 billion, growth of 27.4%.
Increasing pressure on policy-driven transformation of weakness
Although the Chinese government and many scholars believe that the Western economic turmoil on China's economic development will have serious adverse effects, but many people still worry about China's economic future is full, especially in the S & P lowered its credit rating after the United States, China's economic transformation and the survival and development of SMEs has intensified concerns about more.
Alibaba business forum, the development of SMEs in China is undoubtedly the benchmark. Correspondents recently noted that the survival of SMEs occupy a difficult topic of the most prominent site location skyrocketing raw material prices, rent increases, rising wages, rising prices, with many small and medium power up ... ... tired. Humen has been world famous clothing city is now completely in depression, although the name is still prominent Pu mall leasing advertising, but can not afford the rents there are many stall holders to withdraw, The stalls are still open, desolate, deserted. Zibin China SMEs Association, said recently that a new round of closures probably will come SMEs!
The recent U.S. credit rating was lowered, so that has long been dependent on exports of China's economic transformation pressure is particularly urgent. Foreign media analysis, the United States lowered the rating for China is a particularly heavy blow because it is the U.S. national debt the largest holder. This position is mainly Chinese currency to encourage exports down the result,Down the RMB exchange rate approach is used for U.S. dollars from the hands of exporters, and then use those dollars to buy U.S. Treasury bonds, if China continues to maintain a trade surplus, in addition to no choice but to buy U.S. Treasury bonds.
Despite the emphasis on economic restructuring China for many years, expanding Chinese consumer market, but to allow the yuan to float freely for the voice of the Chinese government so far has to be rejected. Resulting in the growth of consumption does not increase in the proportion of anti-drop, and official policy diametrically opposed .
Beginning in 2007, China has been committed to get rid of relying on export-led growth model, relying on domestic demand to support the rebalancing of economic growth, China has repeatedly made clear at the G20 summit of this policy, "five" Plan also clear that the basic direction, but China's economic transformation has not been any improvement, the Department of Commerce's foreign trade growth is also forecast other corroboration of this fact for the reason for this phenomenon, the West economists believe that China's export industry, the powerful lobby, and the U.S. S & P lowered the credit rating of the economic transformation that Chinese policy makers more hesitant.
On the other hand, China's unequal distribution of credit will cause more lack of funds for small and medium business failures. As the central government to tighten credit to control inflation caused by large-scale investment in irritation, increasingly serious problem of small business loans. News said that in as the "cradle of Chinese private economy," the Wenzhou, 36 million small businesses in nearly 90% unable to obtain bank loans and many small business owners have said that despite the government urging them to shift labor-intensive model, but almost No matching policy support.
This articlereleased:China Trade Information (http://en.zgxu.com),Reprinted Please note Ming.