Placid foreign exchange market last week, the dollar index encountered strong resistance near the 74, short-term there may be stronger euro and Australian dollar range order, and a downside. At the same time, Moody's lowered Japan's sovereign debt rating , but the market reaction is not strong. Bank of Japan has said that if the yen continues to appreciate, to intervene.

Weakness in the dollar lower

On Friday, the annual Global Central Bank Governors Meeting held in the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in a speech at the annual meeting global central bank, said the U.S. economy far less than expected recovery in progress, the Fed will take further stimulus to help economic recovery But Bernanke did not put forward a clear economic stimulus plan.

Recent U.S. data have been mixed from the news perspective, the latest U.S. economic data released surprisingly strong: U.S. durable goods orders data for July rose by 4.0%, significantly better than expected and the previous value of 2.0% -2.1%, to ease the second on the U.S. economy into recession fears, however, employment is still unsatisfactory, the week before the U.S. Labor Department reported initial jobless claims increased 5,000 to 41.7 million, far worse than the long-expected drop to 40.5 million, Kansas City Fed manufacturing index and is not expected.

ANZ Bank Greater China, Liu Ligang, director of economic research is that the Fed will conduct quantitative easing is not important because of high unemployment, the United States will maintain low interest rates and loose dollars longer, but the U.S. fiscal policy will be difficult to maintain long time, "stimulus," the U.S. economic growth will slow.

Bank of China foreign exchange trader from a technical analysis of the graph, the dollar index gradually narrow range of volatility, in the vicinity of 73.5 times to obtain a valid support above 74.7 greater resistance.

Concerned about the systemic risk that the euro area

Greek bond prices fell sharply, France announced austerity plan, the current situation, Europe has become a trend in the formation of fiscal austerity.

It is noteworthy that, due to the economic development situation and the financial situation is different, thus creating a "European integration bonds" a consensus is unlikely, the euro area and the euro and therefore there is a clear downside risk.

Merchants Bank senior financial analyst Dong-Liang Liu estimated that if liquidity shortages further spread, its impact is sufficient to bond the equivalent of a country the consequences of breach of the euro's birth defects, determine the common bond of the introduction of the euro area is to avoid high-risk part of national sovereignty a necessary condition for breach of contract, but the strong opposition of Germany, will lead to the collapse of the euro there is the possibility, which is a new global financial market systemic risk.

Ampang Chen Gong, chief researcher believes that Germany is now insisting firmly opposed to the common bond issuance in the euro area, meant that Germany refused to assume responsibility for the euro zone debt, if such situation continues, Germany, for its own stability and development may be sacrificed euro, global financial markets is likely to be dragged into the abyss. In addition, poor employment data in France and Germany banned short selling of stock market rumors that the euro dropped significantly suppressed the French Labor Department data show an increase in unemployment in France in July, 36,000 people to 276 million people, the highest since February 2000 value on the market despite the ban on short selling of the German stock market rumors be clarified, but these messages still suppress the euro.

The euro against the dollar has been in the 1.42-1.45 range-bound pre-order, its overhead resistance at around 1.46, below its support at 1.40. Traders said the short term because the poor performance of European economic aspects,Euro continued to maintain the range of shock situation.

RMB exchange rate inside and outside the spread widened

Last week, the yuan down slightly in market interest rates, the interest rate the central bank issued the previous week up 8 basis points last week, remained stable, which also largely dispelled the market interest rate expectations to judge the market, China's central bank to adjust interest rates and the likelihood of the deposit reserve ratio are not high.

RMB exchange rate shock last week show the situation inside and outside the spot prices of around RMB 200-point spread, arbitrage window is opened again at the same time, NDF and DF arbitrage between the space has been disappeared, due to the past period time, within the DF appeared more significant appreciation of the yuan.

Europe has so far not been combined with the dawn of the debt crisis, market confidence is low, future global economic double dip recession fears even the second rapid warming, China's export outlook, the appreciation of the yuan to accelerate the inevitable negative impact.

Merchants Bank senior economist Dong-Liang Liu pointed out that China's substantial increase in exports is largely led by the export prices, while the debt crisis in Europe, the United States under the pressure of downgrades, foreign demand is also expected rapid growth is unlikely to emerge. Excluding the price factor the second half of the overall situation of China's exports is not optimistic.

This chapterfrom:China Trade Information (http://en.zgxu.com),detailed reference to the above website.