8 on PMI's new export orders index in July from 51.2% to 52.2%, ending a 3 months of decline. This shows that the export situation is not as bad as expected.

Although the PMI whole upstream part because seasonal factors, but the export sub-index in previous years in August on a seasonal rise in July is not obvious. After seasonal adjustment showed that in August the export sub-index rose slightly. Before, Kao Lvdao the U.S. economy by the second Qu inventory and economic Cijijihua due Daozhifusu slowdown, the euro zone Zai Yi Ji Yi Hou European debt crisis growth level will be subject to Caizheng austerity plan Chixu, imperative that the situation in the perspective of China's exports Jiaowei pessimistic. But in August to see new export orders, export, and there is no imagination is so poor.

First of all, The new export orders index and the value of Chinese exports over the previous year between the obvious correlation between the sub-index rose again the value of exports fell year on year significant slowdown in certain pilot. Export growth peaked in May over the previous year, follow-up gradually to 20% -30% of it is bound to return to historical norms, but the rise in the base case will help to maintain a certain growth for the current macro-control and economic restructuring create good conditions. The sub-index to resume its rally, showing export demand remains strong, coupled with the export value in August last year, a relatively low base, which makes the August export growth continues to be on the same period last year.

Second, China's exports after the United States retail sales excluding motor vehicles had a higher correlation between the value of retail sales over the previous year are generally higher than the value of Chinese exports over the previous year's leading two to three months. Taking into account the United States in July sales stopped the downward trend for two consecutive months, this is a good 8-9 months and exports to China has created favorable conditions. Meanwhile, the U.S. savings rate of most recent increase of 4 months in a row after coming down for the consumer situation in the United States recently brought a good atmosphere.

third the euro area the recent economic situation is also conducive to the good short-term stability of China's exports. As the euro-zone economy compared to the United States have a certain lag period, so we expect the European economy was originally entered in August after will also face difficulties secondary to the inventory cycle, coupled with Europe's long-term debt crisis, the negative factors, the economy will occur across the board. But for the moment, the United Kingdom and euro zone economic indicators better than expected, this has also become China's exports plus sub.

Finally, currency stable for the stability of China's export situation has laid a good foundation.

However, trend of exports to China can only" go one step further, to see step" , after all, developed economies generally in the global economic downturn facing the risk of the overall atmosphere, the Chinese continue to maintain high growth is by no means an easy task. For example, the recent U.S. real estate data significantly lower than expected, other economic indicators have shown signs of weakness, coupled with the risk of not eliminate the problem of financial assets, the U.S. economy faces greater risks. In addition, the euro-zone economic downturn or even recession is expected to persist, the recent decline in the euro zone PMI has been, if the euro zone economy fell into the orbit, it will greatly affect China's exports.

This articlereleased:China Trade Information (http://en.zgxu.com),In this paper.