According to Alphaliner statistics, twenty large liner companies were harvested in the first half operating profit of 3.8 billion. Same period last year, they total loss of 6.9 billion. Just released the world's major port cargo throughput in August are still rising. However, after a short period of two quarters of strong recovery, the global prospects for the liner industry, once again revealing a worrying factor.
This is the first from the global economic recovery is weak, the future is still uncertain. According to the U.S." The Wall Street Journal" reported that according to the global number of manufacturing purchasing managers survey, more than enough evidence that the slowdown in global manufacturing. People from the world's top investment bank economists believe that the world economy and not the second bottom, but obviously the recovery may already be over; World Bank Lin Yifu, senior vice president in September, warned in mid-interview , second bottom of the risks remain.
Second, the huge profits the first half of the large liner companies started encouraging the sizeable capacity expansion plans. Alphaliner expects full-year growth in container capacity of about 9.5%, 9.6% next year, while demand growth next year, only 6-8%. Until 2012, capacity of supply and demand growth was 7.7% and 8.2%, be possible to achieve a better balance between supply and demand. On the demand side," The Wall Street Journal," that those who have large-scale purchase of the company is now required only the actual volume of goods ordered, the overall impact of the global supply chain, thereby affecting the recovery of the global liner industry.
add insult to injury, Citibank Asia-Pacific shipping analyst suggested investors to sell the investment bank as soon as possible as each track liner stock, including Evergreen Marine, OOCL, Yang Ming, Wan Hai Lines, Neptune Orient Group, China COSCO and CSCL. Citigroup believes that the recovery of the global liner shipping industry peaked in the third quarter after quarter into the fourth down from the interval, while the global mainstream in 2011 the company's profits will be up liner down about four percent.
In fact, the market's decline has been apparent. In the most eye-catching performance since the beginning of the Asia-Europe route, according to the writer to master freight contract, early in September in Hong Kong from Hong Kong to Europe, the average basic shipping rates, already higher than the second quarter fell more than 13%. While the shipping may not be falling, but not necessarily a strong rebound. Traditional transportation before Christmas season, did not boost the market again hot.
in my opinion, market swings are expected. After all, hard to believe that the global economy suffered" the worst since World War II crisis" hit, after just a year or so to be able to restore stability to pre-crisis levels. Liner industry is still the need to prepare for the unknown off-season.
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