export share of GDP, high, often over-reliance on China's economic growth as external demand basis. On this basis, many people put forward excessive dependence on external demand, will affect the long-term sustainability of China's economic growth, it is proposed to re-consider the decision-making have been implemented 30 years of opening-up strategy, instead mainly rely on domestic demand to boost economic growth .
boost domestic demand no doubt, but the judge China's high export dependence need rational analysis, the widely quoted by the Chinese point of view outside the community to a large extent on the part of the digital surface flow phenomena presented.
rational decisions external dependence data
Indeed, representatives of dependence on foreign trade import and export share of total GDP, from 9.7% in 1978 up to a maximum of 65% of 2006 levels, more than any large economy should be high (over U.S. dependence on foreign trade and Japan about GDP, 20% -25%). Which China's export dependence (exports-GDP ratio) from 4.6% in 1978 up to 2006 high point of more than 35%, in contrast, the United States and Japan this ratio is 10% -14%. Is precisely these two figures, to the people of China's excessive reliance on external demand impression.
fact , although it usually foreign trade and exports compared with GDP, hoping to understand a country's total output in the proportion of external demand, and extended to a country's economy against external economic shocks. From a historical perspective, small open economy's export dependence is relatively high export dependence on China and Da Di two phenomena as it has for normal Zhuangtai, while China world's third largest economy (this year overtook Japan as the second largest economy ), the export share of total output high, is the common sense of economics can not be explained previously, and thus constantly being called into question its sustainability.
with exports to examine the proportion of GDP, a country's export dependence is a very rough estimation method, because the volume of trade with a country's gross national product compared to the value of the concept of value itself is not a comparable, but not a theory clear how much the level of exports of GDP, only a reasonable requirement.
State Council's Development Research Centre, Long Guoqiang made a series of studies of Chinese foreign trade dependence phase of accelerated globalization process, namely the 90 century, since the rate higher than the world average growth, said the change shows that China is to benefit from globalization One of the major countries, China's foreign trade dependence by much of the comparable estimates are still way below the world average. If only from the export share of GDP, high dependence on the conclusions reached another job, a bit superficial suspect, not strict enough.
Processing Trade whether the data than the distortion caused by?
through export trade and GDP to calculate the ratio of export dependence, processing trade accounted for more than half of Chinese exports is inevitably exaggerated and biased, because the export price of manufactured goods, including the price of imported parts. If the detailed inspection of import and export data, you will discover the real situation is not as superficial as presented.
Chinese imports Data showed that all imported products, intermediate products and capital goods accounting for more than 98%, final consumer goods accounts for less than 2%. Which broad economic classification by the United Nations and input-output tables estimated for processing trade exports of intermediate and capital goods imports accounted for 45.7%. Calculation will show that China and the processing trade-related imports, import parts and components accounted for more than 75%.
from Statistics said to be less on imported parts and components of the double counting, more scientific approach is to estimate the added value of export products. The use of value-added exports and GDP represents the total value of production more reasonable comparison.
and according to estimates, China's exports after deducting the added value of imports of parts and components accounted for about 17% of GDP, -20%, the rate of most major economies, consistent with the country. Should not be overlooked is that, compared to other countries engaged in processing trade, as China in the global manufacturing industry chain division status - will import the spare parts, semi-finished machining and assembly as the final link in the final product - zero import Part of the processing trade accounted for about half the proportion of total trade, this phenomenon unique to China decided to repeat the calculation of the value of imported parts and components the situation is particularly serious.
Long Guoqiang in estimating the degree of opening up China to use their trade in goods added value accounted for the first two production rates, and service trade accounts for the proportion of tertiary industry added value, combined with the World Bank on trade openness indices are ways to adjust, find that China's external trade in goods processing trade openness, net of double counting in the open after the seventh lowest, which completely reversed the tide of Chinese foreign trade dependence as well as unsustainable high levels of this understanding. It also reflects the use of existing statistical methods in describing China's economic realities, needs to be done, it will easily come to misleading conclusions.
for international IMF trade data came to similar conclusions, other Asian countries, exports to China now accounts for 27% of total Asian exports, exports to China increased four times the amount of more than ten years ago. United Nations Trade and Development data show, intermediate products account for Asian exports to China about 60%, while China's exports to the global product structure, the final product for more than 60%. Show China, as Asia and the global manufacturing center of the enhanced assembly.
fact , 90 since the last century, the rapid growth of processing trade is reflected in products of China within the division of labor in the global share of the growing. As the Center for Economic Research of Beijing University Professor Lu Feng, a research shows that if the trade surplus with the contemporary era of economic globalization and the environment linked to the new processing trade has not only trade; it represents a global scale as the capital the configuration in which the labor-intensive manufacturing sectors to China, and China's huge labor resources combined.
In other words, morphology evolution from the perspective of the international division of labor, the rapid rise of intra-product division to China's abundant labor force to participate in the overall global industrial chain, a service of processing and assembly base in the global market. Foreign companies set up plants in China, imported raw materials from other countries and intermediate products, the use of Chinese labor for processing, assembling, assembly, and the final products are exported to all over the world. This means that processing trade surplus is mainly represented by labor value added, in front of us is that the Chinese industrial workers to the global output of labor picture.
net exports rate of change is the key
If the aggregate demand from the perspective of the contribution of net exports to GDP ratio is one to be concerned about. GDP accounting by expenditure approach, divided into on behalf of domestic demand, capital formation and final consumption and external demand contributed on behalf of net exports. This distinction reflected more on the accounting perspective. Study of Western developed economies and emerging market economies will find different, inside and outside the required contribution to the GDP fluctuated greatly at different times, and economies of scale and degree of openness does not exist in a stable relationship.
from a target, China has over the past decade the average double-digit annual growth in GDP, the contribution of net exports was only 1.2 percentage points, which undoubtedly is often a big gap between the impression, also means that the growth of net exports to GDP contribution is only about 10%.
net exports contribution to the GDP growth rate of GDP growth and there is no causal relationship between, and thus can not be expressed through the expenditure approach, cyclical variations in the demand forecast of the GDP. China's economic growth from net exports of relations, can draw the same conclusion, economic growth pushed up the upgrade, rather than net exports, in turn, economic growth in China over the past 30 years, is the source of total factor productivity enhancement, as well as China's opening up manufacturing and international convergence of competition phase, during which played a catalytic and multiplier effect.
net exports either is positive, also showed a negative, that showed the trade surplus or deficit. The level of trade surplus and deficit does not show that the external demand on the impact of China's output, and only rates of change in net exports, trade surplus and the deficit is the rate of change is the decision of the GDP contribution of external demand for the core indicators.
growth over dependent on exports open to question
If 2004 -2 007 years of data, China's net exports contributed an average rate of about 2 percentage points, accounting for GDP growth rate of 10% over the same period (2007 was once more than 15%). Even so, the contribution of net exports to GDP has remained at the level of the 80s almost equal. The level of the same period compared to the United States and Japan in terms of relatively stable, because the United States and Japan, net exports contribution to GDP growth volatile.
global financial crisis reversed this process, the year 2009, net exports contributed 9.1% of the GDP growth rate was -3.9 percent. Despite the rebound in exports pick up, but the strong growth in imports of Chinese investment in demand-pull sharp rebound in net exports during the first half of this year is down from a year earlier, and thus the contribution rate of GDP growth is negative, it was estimated that approximately -0.6 percentage points . This also means that the financial crisis in China since the outbreak of the overall GDP growth in demand for the contribution of more than 100 percent.
if from last longer historical period, domestic investment and consumption to GDP growth in the contribution rate with the exception of the year is always about 85% outside, then the over-reliance on exports of China's economic growth has become a question mark.
people tend to easy to misunderstand the source of economic growth, demand is the source of economic growth. In fact, the long term, technological progress is the true driving force of economic growth.
For the open International Trade and Industry and the China link up the global market competition for countries that adopt the most advanced production and management skills enhance efficiency, Qiwei in the market competition inevitable choice Chukou Zengzhangtongguo technology spillover effect of impetus to our economy productivity has improved. Trade as a positive sum game, so that all export-oriented strategy can be in developing countries, while China's economy does not harm other countries. This is not only applicable for small open economies, the United States, Japan and other developed economies, too, on China's economy is also applicable.
Hong Kong, the HKMA Bureau of Ho Tung also by the input-output tables and analysis tools such as Granger causality test, China's export dependence was calculated that the export demand side of China for investment and consumption Ying Xiang, compared to the supply side of the Total Factor Productivity not significant, and concluded that China's actual export dependence is only 15% -18%.
RMB exchange After reboot change, facing the reality of global economic recovery blocked and the United States and Europe increased the economic risk of the second bottom, and even for criticism of China's trade surplus pressure on the yuan exchange rate appreciation is likely to heat up again. As for the trade surplus should be put broader vision of development strategy review. It should be noted, the trade surplus is not only a monetary phenomenon, behind the expression of the surplus of rural surplus labor to the modern global production system, the only way.
from development point of view, China in the next period of time in addition to no choice but to continue the trade surplus. And that China's export dependence has been too high, and accordingly will continue to promote China's opening up policy and promote economic growth in the demand role of conflict, certainly unwise.
This chapterreleased:China Trade Information (http://en.zgxu.com),detailed reference to the above website.