shocks in the international economy is still the occasion, and who to buy" Made in China" ?What are China's foreign trade pattern changes?We listen to practitioners and investigators in the voice of hope and uncertainty in determining the answer.- Editor

" In the first two months of imports and exports better than we anticipated, big business orders grew 15%, small business orders grew 10%, which is a real recovery." When asked about the trade situation this year in Dongguan,Ling, Dongguan City, Vice City, to answer the Yangtze River.

This is not onlythere is a case in Dongguan, broker research to reflect the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta is also a general shortage of foreign trade continues to restore the situation, before that, General Administration of Customs released the data also verified the authenticity of this recovery.

Despiteofficial of the annual foreign trade growth is still very cautious, but optimistic compared to a lot of investment banks.

realresume

in2008 financial crisis, export-oriented Guangdong Province, Dongguan City, suffering, economic growth over the past 30 years, Dongguan (GDP) at around 20%, but by 2009 dropped to negative GDP quarters in Dongguan.

Foreign Trade byrecord, and led to the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta economic downturn is a common phenomenon, Vice Governor of Guangdong Province Wan Qingliang introduced from November 2008 to the end of 2009, Guangdong's foreign trade imports and exports for 12 consecutive months of negative growth in 2009, amonth fell 31.1%.Suzhou Industrial Park, last January fell 49%.

to 2009In the third quarter, the Chinese coastal trade begun to stabilize, Wan Qing Liang introduced starting from November 2009, Guangdong's foreign trade continued to decline began to reverse the momentum of positive growth back on track, to the end of 2009, the annual import and exportnarrowed to decline by 10.8%.January-February this year, Guangdong's foreign trade growth will remain, deputy director of the Guangdong Provincial Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Wu Jun told this, 1 February Guangdong import and export up 48.8 billion over last year, up nearly 33%, is substantiallyrecovery.

foreign trade continues togrowth of the Yangtze River Delta region has also been confirmed in, in August 2009, CITIC Securities on the Yangtze River Delta conducted a survey of foreign trade enterprises, when they saw a general increase in corporate orders, especially the increase in demand for electronic products the fact.March 2010, CITIC Securities on the Yangtze River Delta region once again conduct research, the research objects are export-oriented small and medium enterprises in Ningbo, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, private enterprises and industrial parks business, industry, covering machinery, textile, mechanical and electrical, chemical and commoditiesprocessing.

According to CITICSecurities chief economist Zhu Jian Fang introduced to accept foreign research enterprise in general reflect the demand continues to grow.Enterprises from the second half of 2009, orders began to rise significantly, especially in long single-restoration, and now some companies orders lined up around June 2010, capacity utilization reached 80%, in particular, some industrial park in January 2010 exports up93%.

foreign trade continues torestore the situation to data released by the Customs Department, validation, in February 2010 China's import and export value and 45.2% increase compared to last year, January-February export value growth of 44.8% over last year, exceeding expectations of the majority of investment banks.

for the future, Guoxin Securities analyst Zhou Binglin more optimistic overall, in his report that" in March, China will usher in a continuous significant increase compared with the ring, then the market for a recovery in exports is expected to be more consistent, some out of context bearish exportanalysis can not find a realistic basis."

number-one problem cost increases

Although foreign trade in the continuing recovery, but whether government regulators, or are still doubts about the enterprise itself.

" WeOverall foreign trade situation this year is still cautious." Vice City, Dongguan Changjiang Ling said he believes the company faces this year, three major problems: First, there is still labor hard problem; Second, with the prices of raw materials, business costs will increase;Third, the export enterprises will be faced with more international trade disputes.

employment difficultiesResearch in CITIC Securities also have feedback, but feedback up another enterprise information, human cost of about 20% of the total cost, companies can now raise salaries by, or transferred to the Midwest to address the workshop.Jiang Ling also suggested that the company should be more adjustments of industrial structure by promoting the digestion of human cost.

comparedunder the rising prices of raw materials cost pressures is the number one challenge facing enterprises.

" currentThe biggest problem yes De cost of upgrading production and operation, such as labor costs, rising raw material Jiage, would further pressure the profit space." Jiang Ling said," We are also Xiang lot of ways, hope to promote the enterprise to develop Xinxingshichangand do more business, to digest it costs more." CITIC Securities Research also get the same message," As the economic crisis, recovery, raw material prices increased significantly, companies reported that their price movements for commodities lostjudge, it is difficult to grasp prices of raw materials inventory cycle, corporate profits, there is uncertainty."

A third uncertainty is the trade frictions, before the Ministry of Commerce statistics, in 2009 launched a total of 116 offshore China trade remedy cases, both the number and amount of yearincrease.For 2010, the amount of trade friction, the current investment bank for questioning the judge will generally continue to increase, but most research enterprise has been reflected in the current trade frictions not pose a threat to and impact on business.

comparedtrade friction, the exchange rate will need to be more realistic to face, CITIC Securities in the research found that the majority of the net profits are now below 10%, less than 3% of individual enterprises.Once the RMB appreciation, lack of pricing power will narrow the number of corporate profits, or even a loss, so now some enterprises have increased imports to protect against exchange rate fluctuations.

to increasenumber

futureChina's foreign trade will continue to maintain growth as demand from outside still very prosperous.

" AlthoughJanuary-February export growth rate of seasonally adjusted chain lower than last year in the second half, but in February than in January high, exports to the steady rise in March." macro-country gold Securities analyst, said Wang Xiaohui, he concluded that export growth in March 33%, 20.2% application million is expected, while the King was read to 35% higher.

For allTrends in foreign trade, both official, or cast up lines that will be" high to low," " From the current perspective, we judge the whole export and import growth is high to low." Guangdong Foreign Trade Department, said Wu Jun, deputy director, Golden State Securities analyst Wang Xiaohui, and SW macro Retrospect also that exports this year will show up" after the former high-stability" or" high to low" pattern.

Trade Trendsjudge agreed, but does not mean the market can reach a consensus on growth in foreign trade, foreign trade growth in 2010, the government and investment banks that there exist differences, the official relatively cautious, but very optimistic about the investment bank.

year 2month, the Ministry of Commerce spokesman Yao Jian told a news conference that the continuation of the current situation in foreign trade since last year July low of wandering pattern, far from the financial crisis, the scale and level before.It is understood that the Ministry of Commerce earlier this year, will increase in foreign trade and economic growth this year to the same tune, are 8%, after the development of the situation to 10%.Jiang, Ling also told the newspaper," We expect about 10% this year, the growth, but the reality may well expect this."

In contrast, investment banks optimistic about a lot, they think that export growth mainly depends on external demand.CITIC Securities macro team found that China's exports and around the world there is a positive correlation between economic growth, global economic growth by 1 percentage point, China's exports will increase 6.5 percentage points, while the index of the current OECD leading index has been rising for 10 consecutive months, China's G3exporting countries - the U.S., Eurozone and Japan PMI continued to rise, this CITIC Securities predicted in January 2010 annual exports reach 60 billion U.S. dollars, up 15%.

but moreThe broker is expected to exceed more than 15%, such as the Golden State securities that trade throughout the year at 15% -20% growth rate.Shen million expected annual export growth rate of 21.9%.However, due to the impact of the official mood, such as macroeconomic analyst at Guotai Junan Hu Wang says that the company started more optimistic, followed by reduced expectations, it is estimated that exports this year will certainly be more than 20%.

This chapterfrom:China Trade Information (http://en.zgxu.com),visit the above web site.