Guotai Junan Securities chief economist, chief economist at Thunder yesterday accepted an interview with the China Securities Journal said it expects 2010year's GDP growth at over 10% of the partial thermal range, in which a quarter to reach 11.5%.He believes that the U.S. economy poised to take off, may affect China's export-than-expected.In China's currency policy, the current monetary policy should put emphasis on a new model, rather than indulging in interest rates or not.

the U.S. economyin the second half performance will be better

Reporter: U.S. economic recovery has to be seen, how to treat U.S. companies invest in recovery?

LI Thunder: changes in inventory investment driven economic growth the United States.Therefore, the next new changes in stocks is the key.From 70 U.S. business cycle since the experience, 90 years ago the U.S. business investment sync with the economic recovery of the basic, but after 90 years the two of recovery, the recovery of business investment lags economic recovery a year or so.Since the current round of the U.S. economic recovery began in 2009 Q3, no accident, then, the U.S. business investment will begin in Q3 2010, strong growth.

Reporter:the trend of the U.S. economy in 2010 by global investor concerns that its growth will be any changes?

LI Thunder: the first half of the U.S. economy is expected to expand support in the inventory to maintain 3% growth, while the second half of the expansion in business investment, falling unemployment, rising consumption will be stimulated by more than 4% growth.U.S. investment in 2010 will achieve a smooth turn, contribute to economic growth at 1.5%, of which rely on stock investments during the first half cycle of stimulation, in the second half of the investment to rely on corporate investment and real estate investment-led.

Reporter:Fed interest rate options depending on what factors point?

LI Thunder: Over the past 20 years, predicted the Federal Reserve's key target interest rate is the rate of unemployment, 94 and 04 years of rate hikes are in the unemployment rate fell a year later to start.If the U.S. unemployment rate is indeed peak in 2009 Q4, then the Fed is likely in Q4 of 2010 or beginning of next year interest rates.

China's exportsor-than-expected

Reporter: China's economic growth this year, you think not too much suspense, the major highlights was?

LI Thunder: If the U.S. economy strong growth in 10 years, then the Chinese export growth is likely to far exceed market expectations, estimates the growth rate of China's exports in 2010 may reach 30%.In addition, the 2009 infrastructure investment in fixed asset investment leading to high growth in 2010 will remain a high growth.

Reporter:The number of new loans will be like?

LI Thunder: 2010, new loans will remain high.Expected money supply growth in 2010 19% loans growth of 19.4%.Corresponding to three kinds of money growth target (17%, 19%, 20%), new loans will amount to 68498000000000000, 76413000000000000, and 84426000000000000, we estimate the amount of new loans in 2010 will be at least 7.6 trillionyuan.Of which 2.5 trillion yuan for the second quarter.

Reporter:Your data on economic growth this year, which forecast?

LI Thunder: GDP growth in 2010 will reach 10.5%, of which 1% of net exports will contribute to positive growth, a quarter to reach 11.5%.

Reporter:in the economic recovery phase, you cycle class industry growth and market performance How to treat?

LI Thunder: cyclical industry will have better performance, China's economic structure has changed, the original is light process, the solution is the" food and clothing consumption," followed in 2000," housing, and consumption" , steel, cement,large-scale machinery and equipment related to the development of automobile and other industries are driven up, is accelerated phase of heavy industrialization, driven cyclical industry needs.This process and urbanization are also relevant, if the Chinese urbanization rate to 1 percent raise each year, then 45% from the beginning now, at least 15 years to reach 60%.Such demand will boost non-ferrous metals, steel, cement and housing needs.In addition, the role of local government is also promoting the economy driving a cyclical industry.

Therefore, the overallview, slowing economic growth is difficult, big cyclical sectors worth optimistic, but in some areas to avoid excess capacity, opportunities for mergers and acquisitions will occur there, so, on a cyclical industry, I recommend the industry leader.

should not beentangled in interest rates

Reporter: recent hot market, interest rates, appreciation of, how do you analyze?

LI Thunder: Theoretically, the rate hike cycle has turned, but" moderate liberal" monetary policy is also a two tone.Government cautious judgments this year, I fine-tune monetary policy, monetary policy will no longer be a simple operation of the traditional three way, now more control from the micro level.Therefore, the current monetary policy should pay more attention to the new model, not to raise rates or not entangled.

Reporter:how do we understand the monetary policy," new model" ?

LI Thunder: In the current financial crisis, the international community launched a" financial sector assessment of planning" (FSAP).Premier Wen also announced that the Chinese Government, China's entry into the program.Traditional macroeconomic theory and monetary policy based on this theory of a serious lack of micro-foundation and ignored the effects of monetary policy regulation.Therefore, the effective operation of monetary policy must take full account of market microstructure and its changes, must be closely integrated with the financial regulators.Since last year, our regulators have been more attention to micro level and scale of the existing monetary policy and credit controls combined, if the effective combination of boxing, then do not dwell on the interest rate or not.Concern should be to look at the availability of credit control, local government financing platform can be controlled.In addition, the current foreign exchange inflow pressure is not great appreciation of the renminbi or not to a political question, to raise interest rates is clearly not conducive to resolve the pressure of RMB appreciation.

This articlereleased:China Trade Information (http://en.zgxu.com),In this paper.