If the Chinese economy in 2009 is the most difficult year; then in 2010, the year can be described as the most complex." In 2009, the situation in China is extremely difficult external circumstances, China's economy achieved 8.7% GDP growth in the global economic situation has become an important stabilizing force. However, after 2010 into the Chinese economy still faces many aspects of Chinese foreignchallenges, the complicated situation in the current macroeconomic policy direction into focus. March 21, hosted by the Fudan University," The Economist Shanghai Roundtable" on the first meeting in 2010, public policy experts Watch the macro trend:stimulus is to continue or quit? is to balance the trade friction, or to continue to expand exports? these Chinese macro policy is facing a" dilemma" situation, the trigger hot.
continued expansion of exports or the balance of trade friction
present, the international community, the US-led Western countries to eliminate international trade is notbalance the ground, the Chinese Government and the appreciation of the renminbi revaluation, which triggered a new round of trade protection. whether China needs at this time in order to balance international trade friction, appreciation of the renminbi, or continue to expand the export strategy?
response, Wen ZhangProfessor and Professor Yuan Zhigang the view that, emerging in the global trade imbalances are the differences in national economic development stage of the inevitable results. World Development experiences of countries that generally considered the macroeconomic imbalances exist in reality Dangzhongwangwang intertemporal feature, namely that a countryshowed a surplus in a period of time, but showed a deficit in another time period. The experts generally agree that China's current trade surplus is largely the result of a large number of processing trade, and therefore, the current in thedifficult trade disputes between the United States through short-term policy adjustments to be addressed. the Chinese professor believes that the fundamental constraints facing the Chinese economy is the employment population, mainly the employment of rural surplus labor force. in Chinese demand can not fully absorb the situation, the expansion of exports as the only way to achieve product sales, and therefore a considerable period of time will remain an important pillar for China's economic growth.
On the one hand, this year we rely on exports to make up for the decline in investment in order to maintain the necessary rate of economic growth, needsto maintain exchange rate stability; the other hand, inflationary pressures and asset price inflation pressures, they need to shrink liquidity. policy to face the same" dilemma" dilemma.
experts tend to feel that both the public continued to appreciate slightly, or step-like increase greatly in value are nottake. The former will market expectations of policy formation to take precautionary, to make the economy continued volatility; which will form a severe impact on the Chinese economy. Given these consequences, experts on the appreciation of the way there are two main ideas:Wen Zhang advocate timed, the formation of expectations in the market yet, when a sudden rise; Professor Zhou Zhenhua, the Chinese professor and Professor Wei Sen believes that maintaining the status quo should be, wait, do respond to a trade war preparations. Wen Zhang proposed criticalthat, in the face of foreign pressure, it should be by increasing the Chinese government in the international monetary system in the voice to be resisted.
This chapterfrom the:China Trade Information (http://en.zgxu.com),Reprinted Please note Ming.