international financial crisis, support the rapid development of China's foreign trade over the past decade a number of internal and external factors that will look verychange.Affected in the future in the medium term (from 2010 to 2015), China's foreign trade will be significant changes, in addition to the overall growth rate decreased, the foreign trade products, regions, trade patterns are all going to take astructural change.
influence in Chinaforeign trade, internal and external factors will be major adjustments
on major adjustment of the external environment affecting many factors, mainly the following four areas of concern.
Firstinternational financial crisis, the global economy and international trade growth will slow down.According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2009 9 months of 2010 to-2014 estimated average annual growth rate (4.2%) than the 2003-2007 average annual growth rate (4.7%) decreased by 0.5 percentage points.In international trade (including services trade) area between 2010 to-2014 average annual growth rate forecast of global trade (5.6%) will be significantly lower than the 2003-2007 average annual growth rate (8.1%) of about 2.5 percentage points.
Therefore,the global decline in economic and trade growth, China will change the rehabilitation century (48.39, -1.41, -2.83%) since the expansion of external demand conditions, China's export growth will be reduced space.
2 isthe direction of the global economy to re-balance adjustment.The international financial crisis, countries have to adjust macroeconomic policy, especially the United States to reduce the" double deficit" and raise the savings rate policies, these policies have achieved some results beginning in 2009, the U.S. savings rate, the negative to positive, the futureU.S. economic imbalances will be corrected further, will facilitate the direction of the global economy to adjust to the balance.
Thisadjustment means that even the world economy out of financial crisis the growth rate returned to normal, but the original United States current account deficit will be substantially larger economies to reduce the deficit, so these economies grew slower than the economic growth of imports.
Therefore,rebalancing the global economy to adjust, on the one hand demand for Chinese exports relatively narrow space, on the other hand will facilitate long-term China's foreign trade surplus, and external economic imbalances to adjust the active or passive.
c istrade protectionism against China will be a new feature.As the global economy and trade, is rapidly shrinking, global trade protectionism, the rise will occur.For China, except by the world economy, trade growth slowed down and there's widespread implications of trade protectionism, but also because China's export structure to upgrade to receive more the impact of trade protectionism.
over the past few, China had to face many threats of trade protectionism, but the real implementation of trade sanctions against China or limited.But with the upgrade of China's export product mix to speed up the trend, in the capital-intensive and high-tech competitiveness of products has gradually increased in developed countries will create more competitive industries and strong competition, this change will result in real competitive industries in developed countriesdamage not only affects a growing number of workers in employment, but also affect the core interests of the developed countries.After 80 years of last century, the Japanese export product mix as fast upgrading and enhancing the competitiveness and the United States occurred on a serious trade war.Therefore, we can expect in the short term, developed countries and China's economy will show a rapid rise of friction, the actual sanctions on Chinese exports more and more.
another, since the proportion of China's global export expansion, as well as in labor-intensive industries will continue to maintain strong competitiveness of traditional export products of developing countries has continued to exist between the competition is expected to trade friction between China and the developing countrieswill increase.
Furthermore,to climate change, environmental protection, safety and technical standards as an excuse for all kinds of new trade barriers are increasing, which also will restrict China's export of space.
However,We also see that the future will be some beneficial changes in China's response to trade friction.For example, when China joins the WTO Transitional Product-Specific Safeguard Mechanism (" Special Safeguard Mechanism" ) will expire by the end of 2013 after the suspension, then the other WTO members to no longer use this provision to impose trade protection.In addition, as China increased imports, the trade surplus and lower pairs of skilled ability to use international rules to strengthen, China's foreign trade will strengthen the ability to retaliate, which would force other countries to seriously consider the trade conflict with China.
4 iseconomic globalization process will slow down.Since the 90's of last century a new round of economic globalization relies mainly on information technology revolution and economic liberalization promoted, after nearly 20 years of development, unless there are new factors to promote the emergence of economic globalization, or economic globalization processtends to slow down.
affected by thisthe impact of international industrial transfer and the international division of labor will be some new changes.One the whole, the trend of international industrial transfer will be slow; Second, developed countries in large-scale shift of manufacturing overseas, the relationship between developed and developing countries, mainly for the division of labor in different countries among the developing countriesthe transfer of industries; third within the developing countries are likely to form a new division of labor relations, this slowdown caused by economic globalization and changes in international division of labor relations, will have global scale and intermediate goods trade flows have an impact on China's processing tradewill have a profound impact.
in addition to externalmajor adjustment of the environment, the internal environment will also be major adjustments.Here, there are four factors merit attention.
FirstChina's factor endowments and comparative advantage will be changed greatly.While China emerged from the labor power to a power change in human capital.Chinese labor market is expected to start with" Turning Point" , that is, the number of original long enough, lower wages, with highly skilled migrant workers to the labor supply will be reduced mainly in China, especially in coastal areas there will be a labor costperiod of rapid increase.Gradually emerged in recent years" labor shortage" , enterprises continue to raise the minimum wage have explained phenomena such as China has gradually entered a" Turning Point" , in the future will further accelerate this trend.In addition, land, resources and other factors also appear to reduce the supply, prices go up, dependent on the factor inputs increasingly strong export expansion constraints.
but alsoOn the one hand it should be noted, the Chinese people, capital, technology and other high-end supply factors of production for some time in the future, the major changes that may occur.To personnel as an example, it is expected to master advanced technology, with advanced management experience of international talent will be more and more into China, will significantly change the face of Chinese high-tech industry talent bottleneck.
Overallyears, China has to rely on future low-cost and large number of elements of comparative advantage into the labor-intensive exports will gradually weaken, while relying on high-cost inputs, technology-intensive export advantage will begin to form, the export structure will accelerate the speed to high-end upgrade, thischanges will also encourage China to increase the factor inputs mainly from the extensive export growth, the factors used to increase the efficiency of intensive export growth mode.
secondChina's economic policy will gradually adjust to the direction of expanding domestic demand.The next stage, China's economic policy will focus on the expansion of domestic demand, especially consumer demand to expand the direction of China's adjustment to reduce economic dependence on export growth.
Therefore,biased against export-oriented economy policy will encourage unbiased neutral policy in transition, that is gradually reducing its exports, foreign investment incentives to encourage policies to guide the resource balance of funds to the domestic and external sectors of the economy, China's economy and foreign economiccoordinated development.
actuallyIn 2008, before full-blown international financial crisis, China policy has been a similar adjustment, but in financial crisis, after China's exports have declined sharply, in order to stabilize the export, part of the policy has had a callback.
expected futureelimination of the international financial crisis, the foreign trade policy will be adjusted in accordance with the above direction, and in environmental protection, employee benefits, safety standards and so will take new, more rigorous measures.
third, the new changes in exchange rates and inflation will have a significant impact on trade.In the Chinese economy," Lewis" turning point, the aggregate supply curve as China changes, the increase in excess money supply will no longer be as in the past, in bringing output (including exports) increased at the same time not lead to serious inflation, butturn will increase in output will also bring certain even higher inflation.In this case, future trading account will not be there long-term, sustained surplus, simply put, will promote China's trade surplus to increase the price level or rise, or will push the yuan's nominal exchange rate appreciation, in any circumstances, would causereal effective exchange rate of RMB appreciation, which eventually led to the restoration of basic balance surplus in the direction of change.
Furthermore,As in recent years, land, energy, public goods and services, raw materials prices began to rise in different degrees, especially in real estate prices is multiplied up there the next time, these prices will gradually transfer to production costs,the Chinese there is a big cost-push inflationary pressures.Therefore, the future of China will be raised from below the global average inflation rate in China to China higher than global average inflation level.In this case, the price of Chinese exports become more expensive, prices of imported goods will become cheaper, will promote basic balance in foreign trade to develop in the direction.
fourthexpand the import of factors continue to increase.First, around 2015, China's per capita GDP will be more than three thousand U.S. dollars to 5,000 dollars or more, this is the stage of consumption structure upgraded one of the fastest, China can not produce high-end consumer goods in China, or the developed countries to master brandluxury goods and other imports increased; Second, China's industrialization and accelerated development in the manufacturing sector during the rapid escalation of the advanced high technology, equipment and other capital goods needs a period of time will maintain a rapid growth; third is the real exchange rate of RMBappreciation of the relative price of imports will fall, will enable Chinese consumers to increase purchases of foreign products; Fourth, the policy would increase imports to help the direction of adjustment, such as China to reduce the excessive trade surplus and ease trade frictionwill take some proactive measures to increase imports.
China's foreigntrade in the medium-term changes in major trends
First, the overall foreign trade growth will slow.Expected from 2010 to" 12 5" end of 2015, China's foreign trade volume will continue to grow, but the growth rate gradually declined.During this time, the volume of trade in U.S. dollars, will be close to 10% average annual growth rate, which is trading slightly higher than the annual growth rate of China's GDP growth will also be higher than the growth rate of 4 percent of global trade is about.
basiscalculation, in 2015, China's foreign trade will reach the scale of about 4 trillion during this period, China will have to maintain the status of the world's largest trade body.From the time distribution, the financial crisis will be turned back to the growth of foreign trade, combined with the inertia of foreign trade growth, so the next few years, foreign trade growth will generally show" from high to low" trend.
second, and the export structure will accelerate the upgrade.The medium term, China's exports to high-end upgrade will greatly enhance the ability, is conducive to promoting China's export structure to high-end capital-intensive, especially in technology-intensive industrial upgrading.
noteis present, many foreign trade of China, in particular, to organize the processing trade is OEM production, because China does not control the design, branding, marketing channels, high value-added chain, leading to low export prices, the future of China's exports to the industrial chainboth ends of the extension will significantly improve China's export unit price and the export value.On the other hand, due to rising costs in China, China's labor-intensive export products or manufacturing sector will face greater challenges, their production may be a result to the central and western regions to lower cost areas overseas, the transfer factor trend, China's labor-intensivethe proportion of total export-oriented industries will decline.
Third, the proportion of processing trade continued to decline.Processing trade imports and exports in China has occupied an important position.The increase in the future because of costs and policy adjustments, is not conducive to the development of processing trade factors will increase the processing trade from coastal developed areas outside the trend will continue to accelerate the transfer, and eventually the proportion of processing trade in total trade continued to decline.We expect around 2015, processing trade accounted for the proportion of China's total exports will decline to below 40%.
fourth, the scale will significantly reduce the surplus, the trade balance to balance.The next stage, subject to international market demand slowdown, China's rise in factor costs and other factors, China's export growth will slow significantly; by China to speed up the industrialization process, upgrade the industrial structure and consumption structure, upgrade and other factors, increased importsspeed will increase.
OverallChina's imports growth will be higher than export growth, long-term trade surplus with the situation will be greatly improved, the trade surplus will be reduced, or even a deficit exists the possibility of individual years, around 2015, China's trade surplus will be muchwill tend to reduce or even balance.Trade surplus down, will result in a net export trade to China's contribution to economic growth turned negative from positive, but it should be noted, beneficial to reduce the trade surplus decreased friction, which to some extent, improve the external environment for China trade.
5thChina and emerging markets and the" BRIC" trade will increase.In the new century, while China has made great progress in trade diversification strategy, but developed countries still is the largest export market, accounting for more than 70% of China's export market.
in the medium terminside, on the one hand, the final trade products from global demand, emerging market countries," BRIC" economic growth rate will exceed the developed economies, the former in the global economy and international trade share will tend to rise, the future general of ChinaExports will also change the regional structure, the proportion of exports of developed countries will gradually fall in emerging markets and Russia, India and Pakistan will increase the proportion of exports.On the import side, China will increase from Africa, Australia, Latin America, Russia and other resources, power resources, products imports.
otheraspects, from the international division of labor based on international trade in intermediate goods flows for the Asian region are likely to form more sophisticated production systems, production systems in Asia, China's position will change.Therefore, the next phase, China is likely to accept Europe and the United States from Japan and South Korea and other multinational corporations to invest in China, engaged in processing trade production, in the" flying geese" pattern in the low end of the division of labor, began to invest in other economies, in other countries engaged in processingtrade production, in the" flying geese" pattern of high-end division of labor changes, the corresponding trade flows but also by the upstream product imports from developed countries, exports to developed countries, the flow of final products, to export to other developing countries, changes in trade flows of intermediate goodsto make the scale of China and the emergence of trade of developing countries increased rapidly.
VIterms of trade will be improved to some extent.China's future export prices will be changed greatly.On the one hand, the upgrading of China's export product mix, as the income elasticity of demand for these products quite big, and China gradually access to technology, research and development, brands, channels and other instruments Gao value-added of the industrial chain links, and the impact of international prices of Chinese words Quan Zeng Qiangestimated average price of Chinese exports will be a large increase.
another, China Although the total amount of resources imported goods will increase, but China policy adjustments and other factors will increase the efficiency of resource use in China, China's imports of resource products will likely slow down growth, in addition to global resource Commodity prices after the previous periodAfter sharp rise, a new round of rapid increases is difficult.
Therefore,the medium term, the average price of Chinese exports is expected to rise faster, and more than the average import price growth, the Chinese terms of trade will reverse the deteriorating situation in the previous period, but gradually improved.
This articlefrom:China Trade Information (http://en.zgxu.com),reproduced Please keep this line.